This tracker models the impact of the malaria vaccine roll-out on malaria cases and deaths. Starting from the date of each shipment, doses are rolled out gradually over the number of children covered by the shipment.
Once each child is vaccinated, they are partly protected from malaria, leading to a predicted drop in cases and deaths. This protection wanes over time based on clinical trial data.
All calculations are client-side and use the data files bundled with this site. You can explore assumptions in the sections below and switch scenarios using the controls on each view.
Understanding the numbers
This tracker shows two types of data:
SourcedData from official sources (shipments, population, malaria burden)
EstimatedModel outputs based on assumptions (cases averted, lives saved, doses administered)
Doses per child: Four (three primary doses + one booster at twelve months)
Roll-out model: Linear ramp-up over six or twelve months
Dose timing: Dose 2 at one month, dose 3 at two months, dose 4 at fourteen months after dose 1
Efficacy curve: Flat at initial level until year 1, then linear decay through data points, then exponential extrapolation
Three-dose efficacy: Same as four-dose until year 1, then shifted back by one year
Dose reallocation: Unused doses from children who don't complete the four-dose course are reassigned over time to vaccinate additional children.
Age eligibility: Either the current WHO-recommended 5–36 months or a more expansive 6–60 months
Coverage: All children within the age window living in areas at risk of malaria as defined by the World Malaria Report are assumed to be potential targets for vaccination.
Dose completion rates
Not all children who receive a first dose complete the full four-dose course. The model supports three scenarios based on real-world data:
Dose reallocation: When children drop out, their unused doses are reallocated to future children. This means more children can be fully vaccinated from the same number of doses than if no reallocation occurred.
Dose flow summary
Of the children who start vaccination (Average scenario):
Vaccine pricing
The R21 and RTS,S vaccines are roughly equally effective, but differ in production costs.
Vaccine
Price per dose
Cost per child (four doses)
R21
$2.99
$11.96
RTS,S
$9.81
$39.24
Gavi co-financing
Countries contribute to vaccine costs based on their Gavi eligibility phase:
Phase
Co-financing
Initial self-financing
Flat $0.20 per dose
Preparatory transition
$0.20/dose + 30% increase per year
Accelerated transition
20% of dose price + 10 points per year
Fully self-financing
100% of dose price
Vaccination needs
The Needs view estimates the current coverage gap based on doses delivered to date and 2023 baseline demographics.
The coverage gap is calculated as the number of eligible children in the selected age window minus children fully vaccinated from delivered doses.
Limitations and caveats
Administration timing: The model assumes linear roll-out of doses over 6-12 months. Actual timing varies by country and may be faster or slower.
Completion rates: Based on limited real-world data from early roll-outs. Rates may improve as programs mature.
Efficacy extrapolation: Long-term efficacy (beyond clinical trial follow-up) is extrapolated and uncertain.
Uniform efficacy: The model assumes vaccine efficacy is the same across all countries. Real-world efficacy may vary by malaria transmission intensity.
No seasonality: Malaria transmission seasonality is not modeled; incidence is treated as uniform throughout the year.
Data lag: Shipment data may be behind real-world deliveries. Some shipments may not be publicly reported.
Wastage: The model does not account for vaccine wastage.
Coverage: The model assumes all children in the relevant age window in areas at risk of malaria can and should be vaccinated. International organizations and governments are in practice working towards a more limited goal than this.
These estimates are useful for understanding scale and progress, but should not be used for precise policy decisions without additional analysis.
Methodology: Uses completion rates, dose reallocation, and 2023 baseline demographics.
Based on current delivered doses and 2023 baseline demographics.
Coverage gap Estimated
–children not yet vaccinated
–
Catch-up doses needed Estimated
–doses to close the gap
–
Annual maintenance Estimated
–doses per year for new births
–
Cost-effectiveness Estimated
–per life saved (1-year estimate)
–
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Gavi
Eligible Sourced
Births/yr Sourced
Protected Est.
Coverage Est.
$/life
Est.
$/case Est.
Deaths/yr Sourced
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Date Sourced
Country
Vaccine
Doses Sourced
Children Est.
Financing
Status
Efficacy
Est.
Click a country to see its vaccination trends. Hover for details. Grey countries have no malaria vaccine data.
Data sources: WHO, UNICEF, Gavi. See About the model.
Current efficacy
Average vaccine efficacy across the cohort, accounting for the linear roll-out of doses and waning efficacy over time.
Efficacy is flat at the initial level (75% for R21, 56% for RTS,S) until year 1, then decays according to clinical trial data.
Children who complete only three doses (no booster) have faster-waning efficacy: their protection at time t equals four-dose efficacy at time t+1.
Dose completion rates
Not all children who start vaccination complete all four doses. This setting adjusts the impact estimates based on real-world completion data.
Optimistic: 71% complete all four doses (Malawi RTS,S MVIP) Average: 39% complete all four doses (estimated mid-point) Pessimistic: 8% complete all four doses (South Sudan R21 roll-out)
The model accounts for dose reallocation: when children drop out, their unused doses are given to other children.
Roll-out period
The time it takes for a shipment of vaccines to be fully administered. First doses are spread linearly over this period.
Six months: optimistic roll-out assumption.
One year: more conservative assumption.
Third doses occur two months after first doses, so protection starts building between month 2 and month 8 (for six-month roll-out) or month 2 and month 14 (for twelve-month roll-out).
Coverage percentage
Percentage of eligible children in the selected age window who have completed the full four-dose vaccination course.
The default age window is 5–36 months (WHO recommendation). The 6–60 months option includes older children.
This accounts for drop-offs between doses and dose reallocation: when children drop out, their unused doses are given to other children.
Cost per life saved
Estimated cost to save one life through vaccination, calculated as: (cost per child) ÷ (deaths averted per child per year).
Based on country-specific malaria mortality rates and vaccine efficacy at 1 year. Countries with higher malaria burden have lower cost per life saved.
This is a theoretical estimate and actual cost-effectiveness may vary based on implementation factors.
Cases averted
Estimated malaria cases prevented by vaccination. For each shipment, the model calculates: number of protected children × country-specific malaria incidence rate × time-weighted vaccine efficacy × time since vaccination.
The model accounts for dose reallocation: unused doses from children who fail to complete the four-dose course can be used to vaccinate additional children.
Lives saved
Estimated malaria deaths prevented by vaccination. For each shipment, the model calculates: number of protected children × country-specific malaria mortality rate × time-weighted vaccine efficacy × time since vaccination.
The model assumes vaccine efficacy against death equals efficacy against clinical malaria. Mortality rates are sourced from the WHO World Malaria Report 2024.
Doses delivered
Total vaccine doses that have been shipped to countries. This is sourced data from UNICEF Supply Division and WHO.
The model assumes a delay between delivery and administration. Some doses may be lost to wastage.
Doses administered
Estimated number of doses given to children.
The model assumes doses are administered with a linear ramp-up from 0% to 100% over the roll-out period (six or twelve months).
This is an estimate — data on actual distribution isn't always publicly available in real-time.
Children vaccinated
Estimated number of children who have completed the full four-dose vaccination course.
The completion rate varies by scenario (Optimistic: 71%, Average: 39%, Pessimistic: 8%). The model accounts for dose reallocation: unused doses from children who fail to complete the four-dose course can be used to vaccinate additional children.
Needs methodology
Coverage gap = eligible children in the selected age window who have not yet been fully vaccinated.
Dose reallocation: Unused doses from children who do not complete the full course are reassigned to other children over time.
Coverage is based on current delivered doses and 2023 baseline demographics.
Map metrics
Gavi financing group: A country's status in Gavi's co-financing system, determining how much they pay for vaccines.
Coverage %: Percentage of eligible children in the selected age window who have completed full vaccination. Use the Age window dropdown to switch between 5–36 and 6–60 months.
Other metrics: Population at risk, malaria cases, and deaths are sourced from the WHO's World Malaria Report.